6 Steps to Get AI to Recommend Your Brand

You’re setting goals. Publishing content. Reporting on growth.

But deep down, you’re still asking: “Are we aiming too high? Too low? Are we even on track?”

That uncertainty is normal — but it’s also a signal that you need an SEO forecast.

At Backlinko, we do SEO forecasting throughout the year. We use it to map planned content, track production costs, and project traffic and revenue gains.

This approach lets us prioritize effectively. Pivot when content underperforms. And build lasting trust with our stakeholders.

As Leigh McKenzie, our Head of SEO puts it:

“Forecasting is hard, and imperfect, but it’s essential. It forces you to tie effort to outcome. And to build trust, we always present a range (best case, expected case, and failure case), not just a single optimistic projection. That honesty helps us make better decisions — and earn buy-in.”

This guide gives you two proven forecasting methods.

Plus, a spreadsheet to project SEO traffic in minutes, right now.

Just upload your site’s performance data from Google Search Console (GSC), and this SEO forecasting tool will do the calculation for you:

If you’re the kind of person who learns best by doing, you don’t have to wait. Jump right in with our forecasting template.

Quick Overview of SEO Forecasting Methods

There are two ways to predict your SEO growth:

• Keyword-based forecasting: great for modeling new topics or page opportunities
• Statistical trend analysis: ideal for projecting growth based on your past SEO performance

But, which one should you choose?

Here’s a brief overview:

Approach #1: Keyword-Based Forecasting

Forecasting SEO traffic based on keywords means predicting how much organic traffic you could earn from specific search terms.

You can make an SEO forecast based on keyword data manually or with an SEO keyword tool.

Calculate Forecasted Traffic Manually

You can calculate your potential traffic with this simple formula:

Let’s break this down with an example.

Imagine you’re creating a page targeting the keyword “best hiking boots for women.”

The keyword has a search volume of 10,000 monthly searches

Your current content ranks around position 10, but you’re aiming to improve it to position six after optimizations.

Based on your historical data, you know that pages ranking at position six typically get about 2% CTR.

Using the formula:

10,000 × 2% = 200 estimated monthly visits for that keyword

While this is a simple formula, it comes with limitations.

If you want to make more sophisticated keyword-based predictions, use tools like Semrush.

Estimate Keyword-Based Traffic with Semrush

Open Semrush’s Keyword Overview tool. Enter your target keyword and your domain, and click “ Search.”

Let’s say you’re planning to target a new topic cluster on a mattress brand website, Casper:

After analyzing the keyword and your website, the tool will provide predictions in three areas:

• Potential traffic: Estimated monthly visits you could earn from a specific keyword, based on your website authority
• Potential topic traffic: Total monthly traffic potential from all keyword variations related to the topic
• Potential position: Where your page is likely to rank in the search engine results page ( SERPs)

Approach #2: Statistical Trend Analysis

If your site has at least 16-24 months of traffic data, statistical trend analysis is the most reliable way to forecast growth.

Statistical trend analysis relies on your actual traffic data. Not guesswork, not keyword volume projections, but how your site has performed over time.

Step 1: Export Your Google Search Console Data

First, get your raw data from GSC. You’ll need the last 16 months of site performance to feed into the model.

1. Open Google Search Console
2. Select your property and go to the “ Performance” tab
3. Set the date range to cover the last 16 months
4. Click “ Export” and choose “ Download CSV”
5. Unzip the file — you’ll see one named Dates.csv

Step 2: Import the CSV File Into the Spreadsheet

Now, plug that GSC data into the spreadsheet:

1. Go to the [2] Google Search Console Import tab
2. Click on the marked cell (usually the top-left of the table)
3. In Google Sheets, navigate to “ File” > “ Import” and upload your Dates.csv file
4. Under “Import location,” choose “ Replace data at selected cell” and click “ Import data”

Step 3: Review Your 12-Month Forecast

Once the data’s in, head to the “ Dashboard” tab. Here, you’ll see:

• Your total forecast for the next 12 months
• A comparison against your previous 12 months
• The year-over-year (YOY) change in clicks and %

Step 4: Adjust Growth Scenarios

SEO traffic rarely grows in a straight line. In the “Forecast Adjustments” box, you’ll find:

• Conservative Adjustment (%): E.g., -10% for a cautious projection
• Aggressive Adjustment (%): E.g., +30% for a stretch goal

How to Present Your SEO Forecast

1. Start with a Visual Overview

Begin with a chart that shows your traffic forecast over time — whether that’s based on keyword data or historical trends. Charts turn raw numbers into a clear story.

2. Frame It Around Business Outcomes

Show why it matters, too. In your presentation, lead with:

• The expected growth potential
• What content or actions will drive that growth
• How it supports high-level goals like lead generation, revenue, or product visibility

3. Connect Your Forecast to Potential Revenue

You can estimate how much revenue your forecasted traffic might drive using a simple formula:

Forecasted Monthly Traffic × Conversion Rate × Revenue per Conversion = Estimated Monthly Revenue

4. Be Transparent About Your Assumptions

A good forecast is grounded in clear logic. Just show that your projections are based on real data and thoughtful decisions.

How to Keep Your Forecast Accurate

Review Your Forecast Monthly

Check in at the end of each month to compare projected vs. actual traffic.

Adjust Your Assumptions When Things Shift

Forecasts are based on what you expect to happen. As your content strategy evolves, your assumptions likely do, too.

Ready to Turn Your Forecast Into a Strategy?

Now that you know how much organic traffic you can realistically drive, the next step is planning how to get there. Use your forecast to:

• Decide which pages you need to create, update, or expand
• Set clear KPIs tied to traffic growth, rankings, or business goals